Daily Homicides in the nation Fall Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The mean count of daily killings each month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh official figures. But, security analysts have warned that murder numbers may not indicate enhanced countrywide stability.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This data was provided by the director of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that have been recorded over these months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the smallest amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an ostensibly sharper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

However, security experts warned that using murder numbers to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is notably true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was additionally concerning because it might hide days when there were particularly spiking levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean renders spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

However despite these actions, Mexico is still grappling with high violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst said.